We are the CEFS AI & Advanced Analytics Group at Technical University of Munich. We might be the largest team globally focused exclusively on quantitative alternatives assets research.
Private markets have become a core allocation for institutional investors. The evidence base underneath them has not kept pace.
Underlying valueReported NAV
Opaque by construction
Valuations are reported infrequently and smoothed. Much of what actually matters sits in written commentary and non-standardized documents rather than in structured data, so it never reaches the analysis.
After adjustmentAs reported
Measured by the measured
Performance is largely reported by the managers being assessed, and selection and survivorship shape what is visible at all. Raw track records flatter, and the headline figures the industry leans on say surprisingly little about what comes next.
Our approach
From Raw Data to Evidence
We are a research group first. Our work runs from building the underlying data to producing evidence that holds up academically and speaks to practice.
Three steps, applied to the three questions that define every private markets portfolio.
01
Data
We build our own datasets and work with transaction records, fund cash flows, investor reporting, and firm financials, turning unstructured and non-standardized material into structured, analysis-ready data.
02
Methods
Econometrics, machine learning, and simulation applied across private equity, venture capital, and private debt, built to be interpretable rather than black boxes.
03
Evidence
Peer-reviewed research on the three questions that sit behind every private markets portfolio, and the lens we bring to all of our work.
applied to
RISK
Measurement & Prediction
We treat risk as something to be modeled, not assumed. Machine learning and Bayesian methods turn valuation uncertainty and tail exposure in illiquid portfolios into numbers investors can act on.
RETURN
Alpha Discovery & Value Creation
Alpha isn't luck. It's decomposable. We separate true value creation from selection skill, mapping exactly where private market returns come from.
LIQUIDITY
Capital Flow & Allocation
Capital lock-up shouldn't be a black box. We model secondary markets and capital flows to give investors a clear-eyed view of liquidity, including when and how their money comes back.
Breadth
Methods & Topics
Our quantitative toolkit mapped to the core research questions we pursue.
Hover a method or topic to trace its connections.
Methods
Topics
Tap a method or topic to see its connections.
Research in action
What We Are Working On
A living research agenda across private equity, venture capital, and private markets more broadly.
Developing a framework to integrate illiquid alternative assets into portfolio optimization, enhancing efficiency while accounting for risk, return, and liquidity.
Alternative InvestmentsPortfolio OptimizationIlliquid Assets
A finding that stays in a working paper changes nothing. Ours travels in two directions, and both feed back into the work.
Our research
Teaching
Into the classroom
We teach entrepreneurial finance at the TUM School of Management, and current research goes straight into the material rather than waiting years for a textbook.
Lectures and seminars
Bachelor and master theses
Project studies and interdisciplinary projects
Practice
Close to practice
We work with institutional investors and industry partners on the questions they actually face, which keeps the research anchored in real data and real decisions.
Joint research with industry partners
Access to real transaction and fund data
Findings shared openly, not sold as signals
Partners
Happy to Collaborate
We work with leading academic institutions and industry partners to advance private markets research, and we are always open to new collaborations.
